Thank You

Just a note of thanks to anyone who has enjoyed and listened to my program these past years. I've appreciated all the letters both positive and negative and always like to be reminded that people are actually listening. I guess I'm feeling sentimental tonight as I approach my 4th year at WWDB. Please keep writing to let me know you are out there.

Your friend,
Paul
paul@paulkircher.com

P.S. Is Google talking to me subliminally? Go to Google and type "Weapons of Mass Destruction" Don't press Enter, press I'm Feeling Lucky and look closely at the results....

Philadelphia Fed president forecasts moderate growth next year

The economy is expected to enter a "sustained period of expansion at a moderate pace" next year, though oil prices, trade and fiscal deficits could affect that forecast, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Tuesday.

Anthony Santomero, speaking from prepared remarks at a conference at Carnegie Mellon University, said he expected to see growth of 3.5 percent to 4 percent in 2005. He also projected a "moderately benign inflation outlook."

The forecast should support solid employment gains, he said. "I expect nonfarm payroll employment will increase consistently by 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month," Santomero said.

Both consumer spending and business investment spending have been strong, he said.

Santomero was cautious about oil prices, which have been decreasing recently.

"A significant step-up in oil prices could very well impede growth in the coming quarters," he said. "How much impact it would have is an open question."

The United States is also likely to see a substantial trade deficit - now 5 percent of the GDP - for some time, he said.

Santomero said the federal deficit, estimated at $400 billion, must be managed and addressed. The Congressional Budget Office projects deficits to persist over the next decade at current taxation and spending levels, he said.

"With the elections now behind us, and economic expansion ahead of us, this is an opportune time to restore the budget to cyclical balance," he said, adding he hoped plans are put in place next year.